Demand Modeling

ARDOT Solar Eclipse Modeling Statewide, Arkansas ATG | DCCM is tasked with providing subconsultant travel demand modeling assistance to Garver, LLC to develop a Traffic Mitigation Plan for the 2024 Solar Eclipse. On April 8, 2024, a solar eclipse will cross a large portion of the United States over many states. Much of Arkansas will be in the path of totality. Due to the amount of land within the “path of totality” and number of potential viewing sites, this event will likely be the largest one-day economic event in Arkansas’s history; Arkansas Department of Transportation (ARDOT) estimates as many as 1.5 million visitors may enter the state to view the eclipse. To determine potential problem areas for mitigation, ATG | DCCM is tasked with developing traffic forecasting estimates utilizing the Arkansas Statewide Travel Demand Model (AR TDM). ATG | DCCM conducted research on past events and similar eclipse planning efforts, to understand the potential traffic generators and viewing locations within the state during the event. ATG | DCCM reviewed the ARTDM’s match to 2020 traffic counts in the solar eclipse event viewing area and made refinements aimed at improving the model match to counts. Refinements included adjustment of trip generation parameters, trip distribution parameters, mode shares, and external trip ends. After the model was validated, ATG | DCCM ran scenarios designed to assist in developing planning level estimates of travel volumes and patterns for the 2024 solar eclipse event.

ATG | DCCM’s Travel Demand Modelers Help TxDOT Manage the Future of Transportation in Texas Statewide, Texas ATG | DCCM is proud to be the original architect and developer of five iterations of TxDOT’s innovative Statewide Analysis Model (SAM), a travel demand model that covers the State of Texas. The SAM provides decision-makers the ability to understand future travel demand and how transportation projects serve Texas’ needs. This multimodal travel demand model provides forecasts for passenger travel by personal vehicle, commercial airline, and intercity and high-speed. For freight the SAM forecasts truck trips, as well as tonnage shipped by rail, air and water. The SAM provides TxDOT with the ability to quickly produce forecasts and has been used to prioritize passenger rail corridors, produce performance measure for TxDOT’s statewide plan, provide inputs for TxDOT’s Freight Mobility Plan, gauge the impact of Solar Eclipse viewing on traffic patterns, and provide traffic forecasts for project and corridor studies. ATG | DCCM continues to support TxDOT with updates to keep the model current with best practices, to take advantage of emerging technology, and to respond to new regulatory or analytical requirements. The ATG | DCCM design incorporates both advanced and common-sense features intended to support analyses and lead to better transportation. The Texas Statewide Analysis Model Version 5.0 (SAM-V5) is the fifth generation of this state-of-the-practice model. It provided multimodal travel forecasts and level-of-service performance measures for highway passenger and freight transport, intercity and high-speed passenger rail ridership, freight rail tonnage, and forecasts of air passenger travel to and from Texas airports. The SAM-V5 update uses a TransCAD 10 based interface (similar to TxDOT’s MPO model interface), features the capability to model weekend traffic, increases geographic detail, maintains the ability to run scenarios for any year between model base year and horizon year, and updates individual models based upon recent survey data and current observed data.